The corridors within Burundi’s Seat of Power, Intare Rushatsi House, must be experiencing the highest peak of human traffic as the President’s aides figure out interpretation of signals from the war theatre in neighbouring DRC and the deteriorating relations with Rwanda.
President Evariste Ndayishimiye’s disregard of top military brass, hurried unilateral deployment of Burundi’s 12000 troops to DRC, their humiliating defeat, capture and surrender to AFC/M23 rebels are serious issues that have placed Gitega regime in panic mode.
Ndayishimiye has been making haphazard comments, issuing threats and making unsubstantiated claims against Rwanda which are a clear indication that he is having sleepless nights and is enveloped in fear.
For example, Ndayishimiye claimed during an interview with western media that he had received “credible intelligence” that Rwanda is planning to attack Burundi and that Kigali was behind a coup attempt in 2015.
In response, Rwanda’s Foreign Affairs Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe said that it was not necessary for Burundi to make such statements adding that the two countries had agreed to refrain from verbal confrontation.
“The military and intelligence authorities of the two countries are currently in discussion. They agreed on military and verbal de-escalation,” said Nduhungirehe, adding, the statement by Ndayishimiye was unfortunate.
According to Military experts, Ndayishimiye’s growing fears are linked to the poor performance of Burundian troops in operations against the AFC/M23 rebels.
A coalition of Burundi, FDLR, DRC army and SADC has been fighting against the AFC/M23 rebels who have proved more lethal and pushed the coalition out of North and South Kivu provinces.
“The FDLR genocidal militia have fuelled ethnic rhetoric and enabled extremism to thrive for decades, but also the Burundian forces, the SAMIDRC, as well as European mercenaries,” Rwanda says.
Allying with FDRL whose members are perpetrators of the 1994 genocide against Tutsi is a direct declaration of war against Rwanda and Kigali would not just look on as such a dangerous coalition rolls into action in the backyard.
“Ignoring the FDLR’s role is a failure to hold accountable those responsible for exporting extremist genocidal ideology beyond Rwanda’s borders. Burundian forces share the same ethnic ideology as the FDLR,” Kigali says.
“Burundians we are fighters, we are mobilised. We will respond if Rwanda attacks us,” Ndayishimiye said during an interview with the BBC reporter.
In August 2023, Ndayishimiye issued a unilateral order and sent 12,000 Burundian soldiers to contribute to a coalition fighting against the AFC/M23 rebels and get a reward of U$2million.
Later it turned out that hundreds of Burundian soldiers were killed in action while thousands have repeatedly refused to fight against battle hardened AFC/M23 fighters.
Sources within the corridors of power in Gitega have noted that President Ndayishimiye is under pressure from his Generals accusing him of not seeking their advice and concerns of thousands of Burundian soldiers killed in DRC.
The humiliation inflicted on Burundian soldiers in Masisi, Kalehe, and Bukavu have triggered a significant drop in Ndayishimiye’s popularity. The country’s Politicians and top military Generals are pressuring Ndayishimiye to withdraw his troops from Congo.
“Indeed if Burundians are good fighters and well mobilised, they should have reflected that in the ongoing war against AFC/M23 rebels,” according to Hassan Niyomugabo a political researcher based in Juba, South Sudan.
He added that Ndayishimiye’s popularity rating is below 40% and has been dropping ever since Burundi’s humiliation in DRC especially the failed operations, captured troops and retreats and encirclements. “It is in DRC that the FNDB should have shown its prowess of fighting and mobilisation.”
For a regime harbouring divisive ethnic tendencies under the current political and military dynamics, Ndayishimiye’s government would suffer a swift collapse in case of a direct military confrontation with Rwanda.
Burundi which is just risking its 12000 troops for a reward of a mere U$2million cannot economically sustain a war against Rwanda with a stronger economy and well experienced and equipped army.
Although Ndayishimiye claims that Burundi has no plan to attack Rwanda, it is clear that a signed military cooperation agreement with DRC has been enabling the FDLR operations against Rwanda.
“When AFC/M23 rebels captured Goma, FARDC, Burundian, and FDLR forces turned their weapons on Rwanda, killing 16 innocent civilians, wounding 177 civilians, and destroying their properties,” Amb. Ernest Rwamucyo, Rwanda’s permanent envoy to the UN said in a February briefing to the UN Security Council.
President Paul Kagame warned last year that Rwanda will not provoke anyone despite having been provoked more than one time, but warned those behind will pay a heavy price when they cross a certain line.
“When it comes to defending this country, I don’t need permission from anybody to do what we have to do to protect ourselves,” Kagame said last year.
“I am reminding those vowing to attack Rwanda, or those who have done it before, that they should tread carefully, if they so wish, and we become good neighbours who trade with each other and strive to develop. If they don’t want to, that is not my problem,” Kagame said last year at a campaign trail.
Kagame warned that 30 years ago, Rwanda lost millions of people to ethnic hate and that the country would do all it takes to fight back and those behind it would pay for it.