Russian President Vladimir Putin has ultimately flipped through the proposed 30-day ceasefire on the Ukraine special military operation effectively kicking back the ball into President Donald Trump’s court.
In his conversation with his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko in Moscow on Thursday, President Putin said the notion of a ceasefire is valid, and Russia supports it.
“We are supportive, but there are nuances,” Putin remarked.
“The idea itself is correct,” Russia will determine the next steps to resolve the conflict in Ukraine “based on how the situation on the ground evolves.”
Ukrainian troops on Russian soil (Kursk region) have maintained presence there and hoped to use its control as a future bargaining chip.
However, President Putin said on Thursday that the situation is rapidly shifting in Russia’s favour.
“Yesterday, during a report, the commander of the battle group North and his deputy informed me: ‘Tomorrow, Sudzha will be in our hands.’ That is precisely what occurred,” the Russian leader noted.
He added; “The group that invaded our territory is now isolated. There is complete isolation and comprehensive fire control.”
“Control over the Ukrainian troops within this incursion zone has been lost,” he explained.
President Putin questioned the method that will be used to enforce the ceasefire and that is where the nuances kick in.
“If we cease hostilities for 30 days, what does that imply? Will everyone inside simply leave without resistance? Are we to allow them to exit after they have committed numerous crimes against civilians? Or will the Ukrainian leadership issue a command to lay down arms? How will this unfold? It remains uncertain,” Putin wondered.
According to Putin, monitoring the ceasefire in Ukraine will be challenging if fighting halts: “Who will determine where and who has violated a potential ceasefire agreement along a 2,000-kilometer line? Who will attribute blame for any violations? These are all questions that require thorough examination from both sides.”
Russia concurs with the proposals to end hostilities but asserts that “this cessation must lead to a long-term peace and address the root causes of the crisis.”
According to Roland Oliphant a Senior Foreign Correspondent for the Daily Telegraph a British publication, Trump and his cabinet now face a test of nerve and credibility.
He argues that with President Putin’s praising of the US president and the idea of stopping the war, he hopes to stay in Mr Trump’s good books.
However, the raising of nuances is a classic Russian negotiating tactic – as any diplomat who has been in a room with Sergei Lavrov will tell you.
“By breaking every proposal down into an infinite number of constituent parts, he will attempt to appear co-operative while playing for time, bogging down the talks, and trying to use facts on the ground to squeeze out the maximum possible concessions,” says Roland Oliphant.
If the Americans get tough, he will probably fold.
However, they could get drawn into Putin’s painstaking discussion of the details. That would be to repeat mistakes made by successive US presidents going back to Barack Obama.
