In the next decade, the emerging autonomous driving systems are projected to generate between U$450 to U$600 billion in revenue by 2035 globally.
The projected revenue is not merely a financial milestone but represents a transformative tide that will elevate the entire automotive industry and, by extension, the national economy.
A much-anticipated technological advancement, AVs carry profound social implications. Their significance is underscored by their widespread impact, surpassing the excitement generation by any other transportation technology in recent history.
Witnessing a competitive surge in AV development, a critical examination of their socio-economic implications becomes imperative.
If we look at driving as a service, the current setup is such that for a fixed quality of service, the expectation is to pay incremental wages. Even in such a setup, drivers’ earnings are not sustainable and supply of drivers is becoming increasingly scarce.
As part of our research, we conducted an interview-based survey to understand the supply side of the professional drivers’ job market. I find two questions from the study highly relevant.
one, are the drivers happy with the earnings and the quality of life it affords and two, if they would encourage their next generations (daughters and sons) to take up driving as a profession?
High majority provided completely dissatisfied or partially dissatisfied as the answer to first question whereas almost the entire set of respondents answered with a negative to the second question.
The clear indication is that there is going to be a shortage in supply of trained and professional drivers. Driving is not an aspirational job and is dying, fast.
As the evolution of AI-driven technology progresses, the availability and supply of required skill sets will also transform accordingly.
This transformation will lead to the redesign of training methods and curriculum to align with job market.
It is anticipated that the next generation of workforce be fluidic in nature with high degree of semi-digital and semi-technical skills, well in line with the advancements in technology.
Many predict that the long-term consequences for the transportation labour force are likely to be negative, given that the economic rationale for driverless vehicles is to reduce labour costs and increase safety.
The apprehensions surrounding the impact of AVs on employment echo historical concerns during the advent of computers.
When computers emerged, there were widespread fears that the adoption of ‘the computer’ would lead to a jobless future, eliminating various roles.
However, reality unfolded differently. While certain manual and repetitive tasks became ‘computerised’, the integration of computers created new jobs and transformed existing ones.
Similarly, as AVs become prevalent, the shift in transportation employment dynamics may not necessarily result in widespread job loss. Rather, it prompts a transformation, demanding a a workforce with different skills and roles.
This includes roles in artificial intelligence, software engineering, cybersecurity, data analytics, research and development, engineering, telematic operations, and so on.
Therefore the advent of AVs not only reshapes the future of transportation but also propels us into a new era of employment dynamics.
While acknowledging concerns about potential shifts in traditional driving-related roles, it is crucial to emphasize the substantial opportunities AVs bring to our workforce.
As we navigate the nuanced landscape of AI and AV-driven transformation, it is imperative for, policymakers,automakers, technology companies, social scientists, media and other stakeholders to proactively engage in understanding and addressing the complexities, leveraging this once-in-a-century technological shift to usher in a future that combines innovation, economic growth, and societal benefit.
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