The World Bank on Thursday said it lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 2.5% due to the war in the Middle East, the lowest growth rate since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In its semi-annual report, the bank said that global growth could slow to just 1.3% if energy supply disruptions intensify, coinciding with significant pressures in financial markets.

It noted that global growth reached 2.9 percent in 2025, an increase of 0.2% points from its January estimate, while its latest forecast for 2026 was down 0.1% points from January, reaching its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic began in late 2019.

The bank lowered its forecasts for two-thirds of countries due to war.

The report predicted that Brent crude would average U$94 this year, a 36% increase compared to 2025, and that the worst of the energy supply disruptions would subside by the end of July, with global inflation expected to reach 4%.

The bank stated that growth could slow to 2.1% if the energy disruptions persist for a longer period, and that the average oil price would reach U$115 per barrel this year, potentially pushing inflation to 4.4%.

The report also warned that growth could slow even further to just 1.3% if the energy shock impacts financial markets, leading to lower energy prices, increased volatility, and a decline in confidence.