Some top Russian officials as well as independent experts highly suspect that President Vladimir Putin may not attend the BRICS summit in South Africa in August.
These sources cited by the Moscowtimes claim that the existing International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for Putin and Russia’s domestic stability shaken by the failed Mercenary mutiny could prevent Putin from travelling to South Africa.
In what would be his first official trip abroad since The Hague-based court indicted him for the illegal deportations of Ukrainian children to Russia, Putin has accepted an invite to travel to Johannesburg for the annual BRICS summit.
“The Kremlin and the Foreign Ministry are preparing two basic scenarios for Russia’s participation in the BRICS summit. The first is with Putin. In the second, fears for internal and external security prevail: Putin stays in Moscow and speaks via video conference,” a Russian government official who spoke on condition of anonymity told The Moscow Times. “But a delegation of officials is heading to South Africa either way.”
Officially, the Kremlin’s pause in planning Putin’s visit that followed the surprise ICC warrant on March 17 is still in place.
“For now, we are considering various options, and after the president makes a decision, we will inform you,” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday.
The BRICS summit to be held in Johannesburg on Aug. 22-24 is a key event for Putin, as it fits with his strategy of seeking to display a formidable counterweight to Western hegemony.
And after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the ensuing break with the West, Putin has simply had no alternative but to strengthen partnerships elsewhere.
The issue of security guarantees for Putin in South Africa was discussed during Ramaphosa’s visit to St. Petersburg in June, an official close to the Kremlin who asked to remain anonymous told The Moscow Times.
“The subject of a possible arrest was discussed at the official level and security guarantees were given,” the official said.
But because Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny later that month created another risk factor for Putin, the final decision to travel to South Africa was again postponed.
“To take the ICC warrant for the chief [Putin] into account would be simply insulting. But here, the Wagner campaign created a problem and fear of the possibility of a coup. Now everyone is under the radar of the FSB, the presumption of innocence doesn’t work,” a Russian official who previously served in the special services told The Moscow Times.
