Negotiations between Mozambique government and opposition have a high chance of collapsing if pertinent demands are not met- analysts have said.
The opposition which has an active armed rebel wing has up to today refused to disarm and this puts the government at a skeptical end.
According to BMI Research firm report released today, it is considered that the delay in the peace negotiations in Mozambique increases the risk of social unrest due to the eventual postponement of the elections or to the contesting of the electoral results.
In an analysis of the progress of negotiations between the Mozambican Liberation Front (Frelimo) and the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo), BMI Research says, “the central expectation is that negotiations will continue in the coming months, but tensions between the two parties have increased the risks of social unrest that arises either from a postponement of the elections or from contesting the results.”
Analysts of the Fitch consultant believe that “in spite of the fact that in recent months there has been significant progress in peace negotiations between the government and the main opposition party, there is still a risk that the advances will stop, or even a collapse in the negotiations.”
The main fracture issue, they say, is the deadline for disarmament, which “remains a strongly contested topic,” exemplifying Frelimo’s refusal at the end of June to “get an electoral law passed to facilitate the marked municipal elections for October, arguing with fears that Renamo has not dropped its arms. ”
The postponement of the implementation of the electoral law, originally scheduled for the parliamentary session of June 21 and 22, and the suspension of the preparations of the National Elections Commission “may revive the distrust among Renamo members towards the ruling party,” argue the consultants.
“If disagreement over disarmament continues, tensions can increase on both sides to the point where peace talks are suspended, while postponing elections may undermine public confidence in the government,” they conclude.